Battlefield, earth…

People always want to know how we do it. How do we find the best fares, all the time? The short answer is most of that info can be found here and it’s actually really easy, but there’s also some intuition to it all. Airlines don’t offer deals because they love selling customers cheap tickets, they sell cheap flights because they want to gain a competitive edge against the constantly growing flock of airlines. Here’s how to predict the next great airline fare sale, before it actually happens…

Attack, Attack

Newton wasn’t a fool: for every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction. Think of airlines like the mafia. In Atlanta, Delta is the Tony Soprano of the Atlanta area. They control everything. In Germany, Lufthansa is the Al Capone. In London, it’s Virgin Atlantic and British Airways which run the show. Every airline has their territory, or territories and they like it that way. How do you think Tony Soprano would respond, if someone set up shop in their backyard, undercutting everything they do and trying to poach their customers? Not very well, indeed.

Response, Response

Today, Lufthansa and Swiss launched 2 for 1 offers in first and business class from none other than London, and in fact, the UK et al. These offers run about $2000 per person in First Class, which is a lot of money for a round trip ticket anywhere, but considering First Class is usually more like $5000 per person, this means war. Lufthansa and Swiss are invading British Airways and Virgin Atlantic’s backyard, offering some of the lowest prices of the year, to the very, very best destinations. Wondering when you’ll figure out how to predict the next great sale? You just did.

Look, Look

Any guesses how British Airways or Virgin Atlantic will respond here? And side note, this is just one example. The same thing happens in the US when someone tries to invade American’s Dallas stronghold, or in Asia when someone goes after Cathay Pacific’s Hong Kong – you get the gist. Of course, one of these airlines, or both will soon launch an aggressive sale from Munich, Frankfurt, Berlin, Zurich or Geneva – basically anywhere that would be considered Swiss Air or Lufthansa home turf, or alternately lower prices even further from London in defense. So when you see a fare that may or may not suit you, think what that deal will lead to, and you just might find the next great airfare steal of the year. Don’t want to sit around? Set price alerts using Google Flights for a series of dates, for both one person and for two. The more you set, the better chance you have of catching a deal.

You just got smarter.